Will AI Replace Enough Jobs to Fix Worker Shortage?

The world’s first reaction to AI is to wonder aloud what CAN’T it do. Can it replace nurses or law clerks? Will manufacturing become totally automated versus just having a robot here and there to insert a part?

Or might it become a 3-D printer-plus, and actually make your next car from scratch? Just pour in a bunch of steel and tires into a mythical blender and…puff…there’s a Lexus.

This massive-change speculation brings to mind two previous technology booms that turned out to be busts. The first is when “PCs”…personal computers…first hit the business scene when a report said we would all be working fewer hours. It was yes, we can be more productive but no, that doesn’t mean someone won’t give us more work.

They seemed to have forgotten the Wall Street never sleeps thing, that investors expect more and more profits, versus now that we have new technology we can go home early and take a nap.

The second was the sudden invention of robotics when 60 Minutes showed several reports of the incredible things robots could do now and soon after into our futures. Lists immediately appeared of which jobs would go away the fastest.

And now regarding AI, it’s impossible to separate scientific potential from true science fiction, in part because I’m quite sure no one really knows.

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Further Reading: How Much Are Worker Shortages Impacting Customer Service Today?

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Except the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, They Know Workforce Numbers

In a special report just two days ago, the BLS released a detailed study including their heavily-researched position on AI’s impact on the future US workforce.[i] Their study notes that the initial attention-getting foray into AI was the deployment of Open AI’s ChatGPT in November, 2022, and that speculation has grown since. Their study focuses on the computer, legal, business and financial, architectural, and the engineering occupational groups.

Here is their major conclusion:

Over the 2023–33 projections period, AI is expected to primarily affect occupations whose core tasks can be most easily replicated by GenAI in its current form. These occupations include medical transcriptionists and customer service representatives, whose employment is projected to decline by 4.7 and 5.0 percent, respectively, through 2033.

Then they go on to report these specific projections in this lengthy paragraph:

Other occupations also may see AI impacts, although not to the same extent. For instance, computer occupations may see productivity impacts from AI, but the need to implement and maintain AI infrastructure could in actuality boost demand for some occupations in this group. Among legal occupations, paralegals and legal assistants are likely to experience lower employment demand because of LLM adoption, while lawyers are expected to be less affected. Within business and financial operations occupations, insurance adjusters and appraisers are expected to see reduced employment demand, with AI being able to quickly produce monetary estimates of property damage. Meanwhile, other occupations in this group, such as personal financial advisors, will likely continue to see strong employment growth because demand for human counsel in complex financial matters will persist, particularly for older clients. Architecture and engineering occupations may see some productivity gains from GenAI, but these gains will likely be in line with those afforded by software and other technological advancements in prior decades. As a result, occupations in this group are not expected to see substantial GenAI-driven reductions in employment demand over the projections period.

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Further reading: Today’s Riddle – What is America’s Greatest Business Challenge?

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So How Will This Impact Future Job Growth?

Like the initial impact of robotics, I read this to say that outside of medical transcriptionists and customer service representatives, most jobs will see small increases or decreases overall. And that no one who has their heart set on those two noted jobs should re-direct their career choice given that reductions of 5.0 percent max still leaves a lot of those same jobs to be filled.

It’s essentially what is becoming the repeating how-automation-impacts-jobs story, that technology advances we can’t yet imagine continue to put an end to some jobs while creating new ones. And that overall, the required educational levels keep going up.

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Further reading: Fewer Students, Fewer Workers, and a Hiring Crisis Ahead – Are You Ready?

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What Does Our Future Hold for Workforce Availability?

This aligns spot-on with last week’s report here about colleges closing their doors, mostly because our plunging birthrate has led us to a shortage of 18-year-olds. And that shortage will continue not just as they get older, but that decreasing birthrate provides no indication that more babies are coming our way.

All of which takes us to this major conclusion, and one that is unpopular with some:

The first-world country that attracts the best and brightest immigrants will win.

What’s the best thing that you and your company can do? RETAIN YOUR BEST WORKERS NOW.

Employee Retention for Long-term Success

Now is the time to plan how you will retain your best workers now to mitigate the numbers you will need to hire in the future. If you know you need to address turnover or improve engagement but aren’t sure where to start, email me at DFinnegan@C-SuiteAnalytics.com and I promise to help you jump start your employee retention strategy now, so you can begin seeing results this year.

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[i] https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2025/article/incorporating-ai-impacts-in-bls-employment-projections.htm