The Day “The Great Resignation” Conquered The 2023 Recession

Unprecedented actions took place in the past few days that have a wide impact on our national and global economies…and it’s all about workforce numbers.

“The Great Resignation” and Recession Statistically Speaking

On February 3^rd, our Bureau of Labor Statistics announced these figures:

• 571,000 jobs filled in December
• 11 million job openings
• 3.4% unemployment rate, lowest since 1969[i]

“Lowest since 1969” means lowest in the lifespans of most of our readers. And those 11 million job openings tells us there are nearly two open jobs for everyone who is seeking one.

Let’s compare quotes from economic gurus before and after these data were announced. Before, on December 4^th, 2022:

“If the economy shrinks next year, no one should be surprised. We’re facing the most widely forecast recession in history.” Wall Street Journal, Dec 4, 2022

And then, after:

Treasury secretary Janet Yellen: “You don’t have a recession when you have 500,000 jobs and the lowest unemployment rate in 50 years”.

Forbes: The economy will slow in 2023 but will not likely lead to a recession, new research from scholars at the University of Missouri and Indiana University shows.[ii]

And from MarketWatch: The Fed expects a ‘soft landing’ and no recession for the economy.[iii]

These are just a scattering of quotes from reports that all said the same thing…

That the unprecedented force of “The Great Resignation” has soundly defeated the previously-predicted recession.

Q4 2022 workforce reports focused on layoffs, particularly in the tech sector, decisions that impacted tens of thousands of families all in anticipation of the rock-solid recession prediction. As it turns out the total of tech jobs in the U.S. equals just 2% of our entire workforce[iv] so what appeared to be many souls who lost their jobs was actually relatively few.

“The Great Resignation” and Workforce Woes Overshadow Recession

During that same time in November, I wrote a column here titled Would A Recession End “The Great Resignation”? The conclusion was…

My prediction is it might end that name but it won’t end our workforce shortage.

There just aren’t enough bodies to go around.

“The Great Resignation” Data Doesn’t Lie

I’m not an economist and surely don’t understand all of the variables they put into their stew. But the one thing I know that stubborn minds just won’t accept is there are not enough workers within the borders of the United States to do all of the jobs that are required to move our economy forward. My untrained mind is tempted to argue that this is a reason FOR predicting a recession. But facts happen to be facts regarding our collective workforce’s response to COVID:

• Over two million workers who had no intention of retiring did indeed retire in 2020 when COVID struck.
• Another two million stayed home with their kids that year and most never returned to traditional jobs.
• Then one-million-plus died of COVID.
• And untold millions turned their backs on corporate America once they felt corporate America turned their backs on them, vowing to start their own businesses and working a schedule they chose.

Toss in our declining birthrate since 1955 and we thus have too few bodies to go around.

Plus young workers, millennials and gen z, were far less loyal prior to the pandemic and they now have 11 million corporate jobs to choose from…plus any jobs they invent on their own. And as time marches on not all of those “young” workers are  young, and they now comprise 51% of our total workforce. One could proclaim that young workers won.

What’s the biggest lesson? That our workforce woes will not go away, that they are so strong that these same workforce problems blew away any recession fears like a Florida hurricane.

And the second-biggest lesson is our clients continue to cut turnover by 20% and more in the face of this workforce hurricane. Should you wish to learn why, please check us out here: https://c-suiteanalytics.com/solutions/comprehensive-turnover-solution/

Or call me at 407.694.3390 if you’d like to discuss any of these topics or solutions in more detail. I’ll be waiting to hear from you.

You Can Cut Turnover by 20% or More Even During “The Great Resignation”

Schedule a conversation with me at DFinnegan@C-SuiteAnalytics.com to discuss your employee retention roadblocks and I’ll share ideas for how you can move forward and what is working for other companies to cut turnover by 20% and more, even during The Great Resignation that may benefit you.

[i] All from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2.8.23

[ii] https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonconstable/2023/01/28/now-recession-in-2023-new-research-shows/?sh=22e940ab3430

[iii] https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-fed-expects-a-soft-landing-and-no-recession-for-the-economy-we-could-get-stagflation-instead-11675052885

[iv] WSJ, 2.9.23