It is possible that many companies think early turnover is just “the cost of doing business.” My recent work with the U.S. Census Bureau makes clear that there are fewer new workers coming our way, so I think it is time that we get a lot smarter about who we hire and how we retain them. Here are four ideas that I promise will work because if you don’t address it now, turnover may just cost you your business.
Colbert, “Work Breaks” and Birthrates
The world’s leading nations have a new common enemy which is that we are all running out of workers. The associated metric is named “birthrate”, and a society must reach at least 2.1 babies per each woman during her lifetime to maintain an even population. The U.S. measures replicate the rest of our first-world partners where we’ve gone from a high of 3.7 in the mid-1950s to a historic low of 1.6 in 2023. That decline includes that we’ve barely touched 2.1 since 1972, a period beyond fifty years. And our current 1.6 represents a continual decline for the past 15 years.[i]
So the cavalry isn’t coming. Related trends are that Americans are less interested in romantic relationships and less interested in sex. Some researchers tell us that the major culprit is smart phones which seem to provide enough online partnership to satisfy far too many of us versus our carrying on a traditional social life.
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Further Reading: WSJ Says “Americans Don’t Care as Much About Work”
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The Impact of Birthrates on Jobs and Economies
The decrease in the extreme U.S. birthrates mentioned above…3.7 down to 1.6…is the reason we can’t find enough workers. And this trend will only get worse, whether future “help wanted” signs are generated by AI or magic markers. Baby boomers are leaving the workforce and there are flat-out not enough younger workers to replace them. And some would say younger generations are not bringing the hard-charging level of contributions, the grit, that their parents or grandparents brought with them. Three eye-popping statistics bear out our woeful workforce numbers, whether they impact our lives or those of our descendants:
- Immigrants: Beginning in 2030, more than half of new U.S. workers will be immigrants and that percentage will increase from year to year for as far as the Census Bureau can see.
- Decrease: in 2080 the U.S. population will begin to decrease.
- Africa: And by 2100 five of the ten most-populated nations in the world will be in Africa.
The reason for these major shifts is that higher birthrates have been mostly found in the poorer countries, as those classified as “low income” had a 4.5 average birthrate in 2023 whereas those classified as “upper middle income” have averaged where the U.S. finished during 2023 at 1.6.
Country-specific data is astounding. The German working population will reduce by a third by the end of this century, along with Italy, Spain, and Greece losing half of their total workforces, and then Poland, Portugal, Romania, Japan, and China will all lose up to two-thirds of their labor force.[ii] Another report details that by 2030, that soon, the world will be short by 85 million workers, the approximate population of Germany. Six million of these shortages will be here in the United States.[iii]
National Cultures Drive Birthrate Solutions
Each impacted nation is carving out its own fix, and the different approaches represent our different cultural beliefs.
- South Korea has the world’s lowest birthrate and last year they sold more pet strollers than baby strollers; President Yoon Suk Yeol is considering paying a $70,000 bonus for each newborn child[iv], all while his family has ten cats and dogs but no children.[v]
- Germany has legislated an immigration skill-based point system[vi] in an attempt to limit immigration to only those immigrants who can contribute to their economy.
- Japan has rejected immigration as a fix and is instead implementing “womenomics”, asking more of their women to join their workforce[vii]…while they are on the verge of slipping into fourth place among the world’s leading economies, falling behind India.
And then there is Russia. Last week I was watching The Late Show with Steven Colbert…one of my favorites btw…when Colbert showed a clip from Russian TV with translation that couldn’t possibly have been true. The next morning I googled it and here’s what I found:
At the beginning of September, Yevgeny Shestopalov, the minister of health for the region of Primorsky Krai, told a Russian news outlet that having a busy career wasn’t an excuse for not having a family, and that people could choose to “create offspring” during work breaks.[viii]
No wine? No chocolate? Maybe candle smoke would trigger their overhead sprinkler systems.
Russia is also pushing that young people should go to college and start a family while as students, aiming for the double win of a better-educated population while getting more babies into their world at a faster pace.
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Further Reading: Without Immigrants, U.S. Working-Age Population Would Shrink
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And the U.S. Fix for Birthrate Decline Is…?
Think of this as a two-parter. Major immigration is here to stay and U.S. businesses welcome it because our economy would shatter without it. Yet of this is happening at a time when Americans are rejecting immigration as Gallup’s most recent polling says Americans want less of it rather than more.[ix] But other reports tell us more immigrants are working than native-born Americans, have lower crime rates, and overall contribute as much or more than those born on our soil.
The smarter choice, though, is to retain the workers you want to keep. The most damning metric going forward is how few people will be added to our workforce, regardless of which country they will come from. And this will happen for as far as the Census Bureau can see.
America has never been challenged to retain its position as the world’s strongest economy, the leader of the free world, as it will be going forward simply because factories will struggle more than ever to find and retain good workers. And so will hospitals, food processing companies, and the rest. Employee retention is about to move from being a very, very important component to organizational success to becoming the top strategy for each organization’s very survival.
Our government is way past providing financial help to women or couples so they have more kids, as our society’s path is set in stone. Please keep the workers you want to keep.
Employee Retention for Organizational Success
It’s never to early to start planning. If you know you need to address turnover or improve engagement for 2025 goals, but aren’t sure where to start, email me at DFinnegan@C-SuiteAnalytics.com and I promise to help you jump start your employee retention strategy now, so you can see results in 2025.
[i] This data is available through the U.S. Census Bureau report, and I’ve been collaborating with the Census Bureau for my new book.
[ii] https://www.businessinsider.com/great-labor-shortage-looming-population-decline-disaster-global-economy-2022-10
[iii] https://www.forbes.com/councils/forbesagencycouncil/2024/03/25/turning-silver-into-gold-are-unretired-workers-a-solution-to-the-85-trillion-labor-shortage/#:~:text=According%20to%20predictions%2C%20by%202030,first%20time%20in%20U.S.%20history.
[iv] https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-05-15/south-korea-fertility-crisis-could-public-subsidies-solve-it?utm_content=view&cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-view&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&sref=htOHjx5Y&embedded-checkout=true
[v] [v] From The Week, 9.20.24
[vi] https://www.hr-brew.com/stories/2023/10/20/new-regulations-in-germany-allow-for-easier-hiring-of-immigrants?mbcid=33096141.134789&mblid=b09901745114&mid=b2b7ab51ba82d223c32897cbe0ab312a&utm_campaign=hrb&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_source=morning_brew
[vii] https://asiapacificcurriculum.ca/learning-module/womenomics-japan
[viii] https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/russia-mothers-birth-rate-1.7327712
[ix] https://news.gallup.com/poll/1660/immigration.aspx
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