7 New Statistics on the Road Record-Level Turnover Coming

Record-Level Turnover Coming Your Way

Two months ago, I presented this stunning quote from the Wall Street Journal regarding the then-proposed federal stimulus plan which has since become law:

            The $1.9 trillion proposal, even without the planned second round, would push the jobless rate as low as 3.2% in late 2021 and early 2022, according        to a report from Brookings Institution economists Wendy Edelberg and      Louise Sheiner.

I believe the included line “even without the planned second round” referred to the $2.25 trillion infrastructure plan which will soon be formally proposed to Congress…and for which we have few if any engineers, electricians, and pipe-fitters to perform the proposed work. But more on that in future weeks.

So now comes new information in the past seven days that drives home that this wacky idea of 3.2% unemployment by year end is real.

  1. Our U.S. economy added 916,000 jobs in March, exceeding economists’ expectations by 200,000[i]…and that’s a lot.
  2. Nearly two million fewer Americans reported last month they were unable to work because their employer closed or lost business due to the pandemic…so businesses are re-opening.
  3. And 500,000 less said they couldn’t seek work due to the pandemic…so for whatever reasons more workers have been unleashed from pandemic perils.
  4. U.S. manufacturing job openings have doubled in the past 14 months.
  5. The Bureau of Labor Statistics now forecasts that our pre-pandemic levels of jobs will be reached in March of 2022, less than a year from now.

The 6th new statistic caught me off guard even more, that Indeed’s job postings are up 13.5% compared to pre-pandemic levels.[ii] Scratch your head on this one, that while unemployment is 6% compared to the 3.5% immediately before the pandemic, more jobs are being posted now versus then.

So the 7th new statistic is a perfect fit, that 46% of Americans think our economy is good compared to 37% just one month ago.[iii]

And here’s a bonus fact. Last Friday the CDC said “People who are fully vaccinated with an FDA-authorized vaccine can travel safely within the United States.”[iv] Say hello to full flights, hotels, and restaurants once again.

Beth Ann Bovino, an S& P economist, said it this way:

            “There’s a seismic shift going on in the U.S. economy. The confluence of   additional federal stimulus, growing consumer confidence and the feeling       that the pandemic is close to abating—despite rising infections in recent   weeks—is propelling economic growth and hiring. Fear is subsiding, and         American households are sitting on a lot of cash”[v]

The resulting 5-alarm fire signifies this is not a time to do “same old”. It is not a time for more “post & pray” job postings while telling managers you are doing all you can to fill their jobs. And as hard as it is to retain your best current workers, retaining is a better strategy than recruiting…against the headwinds of all that is listed above. How does one recruit better when unemployment is becoming 3.2%? And maybe even worse in your local market?

I have a hunch the federal government will slow down its talk about raising the minimum wage, if for no other reason than our demand-versus-supply job market is about make us pay higher for all jobs.

Paying more money, though, for current workers or new ones is nearly 100% disassociated from keeping our best performers. Let’s harken back to true north, the most important sentence regarding retaining any worker who you want to keep:

The #1 reason employees stay or leave…or for that matter engage or disengage…is how much they trust their immediate supervisors.

I invented Stay Interviews for this reason, exclusively so each leader in your company has a defined, specific way to build trust with each member of her team…rather than haphazard interactions that might build that deep-needed connection or might not. This applies to plant managers down to first-line supervisors…and even team leads if you have them. Or charge nurses or any other semi-supervisory job that still pays an hourly wage, those half-boss jobs that are five toes in and five toes out regarding what we consider to be “management”.

Each upcoming week will make hiring more difficult. There are two traps to avoid:

  1. We can out-recruit this difficult period so employee retention doesn’t matter.
  2. Addressing leader trust is too hard, too intangible…so I’ll focus on better onboarding instead.

This is the time when company executives and chief HR managers must grow to meet this extreme upcoming turnover challenge. Stay Interviews combined with retention goals, forecasts, and accountability are available to you. Our greatest people management test starts now.

Dick Finnegan is SHRM’s top-selling author and top-rated webcast presenter. Please email your comments to DFinnegan@C-SuiteAnalytics.com.  Contact Dick to discuss how we can help you retain your valuable employees.  You are also welcome to forward this blog to anyone you believe would find it helpful.

  • [i]
  • [ii] Anticipation building for US hiring boom this year”, Associated Press, Christopher Rugaber, 4.2.21
  • [iii] https://apnorc.org/
  • [iv] https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/travelers/travel-during-covid19.html
  • [v] https://www.wsj.com/articles/march-jobs-report-unemployment-rate-2021-11617314225?mod=djemalertNEWS

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